FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 9:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, JULY 26, 2001
The Press Release in a PDF file
GERMANY COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR JUNE 2001
The Conference Board announced today that the leading index for Germany decreased 0.1 percent in June, and the coincident index held steady. Taken together, the composite indexes suggest continued sluggishness in the German economy.
- With this month's decrease, the leading index is now 1.7 percent below its highest value of February 2000, and its weakness has become more widespread among its components, as shown by the diffusion index over six month spans remaining below 50 percent for 5 months.
- The decrease in this month's leading index reflects worsening consumer and business sentiment, as well as weakness in the stock market.
- The coincident index, which measures current economic activity, remained flat in June. The weakness in industrial production, as well as manufacturing sales and unemployment rate, contributed to the coincident index holding steady.
LEADING INDICATORS. Four of the nine components of the leading index increased in June. The positive contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are growth rate of CPI Services, yield spread, new residential construction orders*, and gross enterprises and properties income*. Five components decreased in June. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest to the smallest negative contributor- are inventory change, stock prices, inverted applications for unemployment compensation*, consumer confidence index*, and new orders in investment goods industries*.
With the decrease of 0.1 percent in June, the leading index now stands at 104.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in May and increased 0.2 percent in April. During the six-month span through June, the leading index decreased 0.9 percent, and only three of the nine components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 33.3 percent).
* See notes under data availability.
The next release is scheduled for August 29, 2001 at 9:30 A.M. ET
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. One of the four components of the coincident index increased in June. The increase occurred in retail trade*. The inverted unemployment rate and manufacturing sales* remained steady, while industrial production* decreased in June.
Holding steady in June, the coincident index now stands at 101.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.1 percent in May and decreased 0.3 percent in April. During the six-month period through June, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, with two of four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 62.5 percent).
FOR TABLES AND CHARTS, SEE BELOW
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used by The Conference Board to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. ET on July 25, 2001. Some series are estimated as noted below.
NOTES: Series in the leading index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are new orders for investment goods industries, applications for unemployment compensation, consumer confidence, inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income. Series in the coincident index that are based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production, manufacturing sales and retail trade.
# # #
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Ataman Ozyildirim: 1-212-339-0399
Mike Fort: 1-212-339-0402
Bart Van Ark: 31-50-363-3674
Randy Poe: 1-212-339-0234
Frank Tortorici: 1-212-339-0231
THE CYCLICAL INDICATOR APPROACH. The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident indexes are essentially composite averages of between four and nine individual leading or coincident indicators. (See page 3 for details.) They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component-primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity.
A change in direction in a composite index does not signal a cyclical turning point unless the movement is of significant size, duration, and scope. Historical analysis with U.S. data shows recession warnings are best determined by looking for negative growth of about 3.5 percent, coupled with declines in at least half of the components over a six-month span. Further explanations of the cyclical indicator approach and the composite index methodology appear in The Conference Board's Business Cycle Indicators report and Web site:www.globalindicators.org.
* See notes under data availability.
Germany Composite Indexes: Components and Standardization Factors
| ||Leading Index||Factor|
|1.||New Orders, Investment Goods||.0604|
|2.||Applications for Unemployment Compensation||.0283|
|3.||Yield Spread, 10 year minus 3 month||.3379|
|4.||Change in Inventories||.0993|
|5.||Gross Enterprise and Property Income||.0835|
|7.||New Orders, Residential Construction||.0415|
|8.||Growth Rate for Consumer Price Index for Services||.2067|
|9.||Consumer Confidence Index||.1122|
The component factors are inversely related to the standard deviation of the month-to-month changes in each component. They are used to equalize the volatility of the contribution from each component and are "normalized" to sum to 1. These factors were revised effective with January 30, 2001 release, and all historical values for the two composite indexes have been revised at the time to reflect the changes. (Under normal circumstances, updates to the leading and coincident indexes only incorporate revisions to data over the past six months.)
The factors above were calculated using 1973-1999 as the sample period for measuring volatility for the leading index, and 1960-1999 as the sample period for the coincident index. There are additional sample periods as the result of different starting dates for the component data. When one or more components is missing, the other factors are adjusted proportionately to ensure that the total continues to sum to 1. For additional information on the standardization factors and the index methodology visit our Web site: www.globalindicators.org.
To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading and coincident indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each component. The resulting indexes are constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the data unavailable at the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program. The main advantage of this procedure is to utilize in the leading index the data, such as stock prices, that are available sooner than other data on "real" aspects of the economy, such as new orders and changes in inventory. Empirical research by The Conference Board suggests there are real gains in adopting this procedure to make all the indicator series as up-to-date as possible.
The schedule for 2000 for the "Leading Economic Indicators" news release is:
July 2001 data … Wednesday August 29, 2001
August 2001 data … Thursday September 27, 2001
All releases are at 9:30 PM EST.
With annual benchmark revisions in January 2001, all components of the leading and coincident indexes were updated with all revisions in the underlying component data.
For detailed information on benchmark revisions, visit our website: www.globalindicators.org
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
The Conference Board is a worldwide research and business membership group, with more than 3,000 corporate and other members in 67 nations. One of the leading private sources of economic and business intelligence, The Conference Board is a not-for-profit, non-advocacy organization.
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THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS PROGRAM
In December 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes in the "Leading Economic Indicators" news release from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
The Conference Board produces a monthly report called Business Cycle Indicators and corresponding electronic datafiles that highlight the U.S. composite indexes and offer a wealth of additional statistical information gathered together in a common format. More than 250 U.S. economic series are in the BCI dataset, covering the most important aspects and sectors of the U.S. economy. An international dataset that will include the underlying data used to compute the global indicators will be available by subscription on our Web site. Visit the BCI Web site at http://www.globalindicators.org or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
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