FOR WIRE TRANSMISSION: 9:30 A.M. EST, THURSDAY, JUNE 28, 2001
The Press Release in a PDF file
GERMANY COMPOSITE INDEXES FOR MAY 2001
The leading index for Germany increased 0.2 percent in May, and the coincident index held steady. Taken together, the composite indexes suggest that Germany's economic growth will slow further.
- With the 0.2 percent increase in the leading index in May, it is now 0.1 percent above its value of last November. Although the upturn in the financial sector has contributed positively to the leading index this month, a decline in the new orders of investment goods industries for the fifth consecutive month suggests a continuing weakness in the German economy.
- Despite the small upward trend in the leading index, the widespread sluggishness of economic activity continues in May, as measured by the diffusion index of nine component leading indicators which is still below 50 percent over the same six-month period.
- The coincident index, which measures current economic activity, remained flat in May. The weakness in industrial production and retail trade contributed to the coincident index holding steady.
- The composite indexes and their components suggest that economic activity in Germany is not protected from the slowdown in the global and EU-zone economies.
LEADING INDICATORS. Five of the nine components of the leading index increased in May. The positive contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest- are stock prices, yield spread, new residential construction orders, gross enterprises and properties income, and growth rate of CPI Services. Two components, consumer confidence index and inverted applications for unemployment compensation, remained unchanged. Two components decreased. The negative contributors to the leading index -in order from the largest to the smallest negative contributors- are inventory change and new orders in investment goods industries. (For details see data availability section and tables).
With the increase of 0.2 percent in May, the leading index now stands at 105.5 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.4 percent in April and decreased 0.5 percent in March. During the six-month span through May, the leading index increased 0.1 percent, and only four of the nine components increased (diffusion index, six-month span equals 44.4 percent).
The next release is scheduled for July 26, 2001 at 9:30 A.M. EST.
COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components of the coincident index increased in May. The increases - in order from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - occurred in unemployment rate, manufacturing sales and retail trade. Industrial production decreased in May. (For details see data availability section and tables).
Holding steady in May, the coincident index now stands at 101.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.2 percent in April and increased 0.1 percent in March. During the six-month period through May, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, with three of four series making positive contributions (diffusion index, six-month span equals 87.5 percent).
DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 10 A.M. CET (Germany) on May 24, 2001. At the time of the release, recent data for several of the series were based on estimates. In the leading index, recent data for new orders for investment goods industries, applications for unemployment compensation, consumer confidence, inventory change, new residential construction orders, and gross enterprises and properties income were based on estimates. In the coincident index, recent data for industrial production, manufacturing sales and retail trade were also based on estimates.
Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Ataman Ozyildirim: 1-212-339-0399
Mike Fort: 1-212-339-0402
Bart Van Ark: 31-50-363-3674
Randy Poe: 1-212-339-0234
Frank Tortorici: 1-212-339-0231
THE CYCLICAL INDICATOR APPROACH. The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident indexes are essentially composite averages of between four and nine individual leading or coincident indicators. (See page 3 for details.) They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component-primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.
Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity.
A change in direction in a composite index does not signal a cyclical turning point unless the movement is of significant size, duration, and scope. Historical analysis with U.S. data shows recession warnings are best determined by looking for negative growth of about 3.5 percent, coupled with declines in at least half of the components over a six-month span. Further explanations of the cyclical indicator approach and the composite index methodology appear in The Conference Board's Business Cycle Indicators report and Web site: www.globalindicators.org.
Germany Composite Indexes: Components and Standardization Factors
| ||Leading Index||Factor|
|1.||New Orders, Investment Goods||.0604|
|2.||Applications for Unemployment Compensation||.0283|
|3.||Yield Spread, 10 year minus 3 month||.3379|
|4.||Change in Inventories||.0993|
|5.||Gross Enterprise and Property Income||.0835|
|7.||New Orders, Residential Construction||.0415|
|8.||Growth Rate for Consumer Price Index for Services||.2067|
|9.||Consumer Confidence Index||.1122|
The component factors are inversely related to the standard deviation of the month-to-month changes in each component. They are used to equalize the volatility of the contribution from each component and are "normalized" to sum to 1. These factors were revised effective with January 30, 2001 release, and all historical values for the two composite indexes have been revised at the time to reflect the changes. (Under normal circumstances, updates to the leading and coincident indexes only incorporate revisions to data over the past six months.)
The factors above were calculated using 1973-1999 as the sample period for measuring volatility for the leading index, and 1960-1999 as the sample period for the coincident index. There are additional sample periods as the result of different starting dates for the component data. When one or more components is missing, the other factors are adjusted proportionately to ensure that the total continues to sum to 1. For additional information on the standardization factors and the index methodology visit our Web site: www.tcb-indicators.org.
To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading and coincident indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each component. The resulting indexes are constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the data unavailable at the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program. The main advantage of this procedure is to utilize in the leading index the data, such as stock prices, that are available sooner than other data on "real" aspects of the economy, such as new orders and changes in inventory. Empirical research by The Conference Board suggests there are real gains in adopting this procedure to make all the indicator series as up-to-date as possible.
The schedule for 2000 for the "Leading Economic Indicators" news release is:
June 2001 data … Thursday July 26, 2001
July 2001 data … Wednesday August 29, 2001
August 2001 data … Thursday September 27, 2001
All releases are at 9:30 PM EST.
As of January 2001, all components of the leading and coincident indexes have incorporated annual benchmark revisions. For detailed information on benchmark revisions, visit out website: www.tcb-indicators.org
ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD
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THE CONFERENCE BOARD'S BUSINESS CYCLE INDICATORS PROGRAM
In December 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes in the "Leading Economic Indicators" news release from the U.S. Department of Commerce, which is in keeping with its mission to improve the business enterprise system and to enhance the contribution of business to society.
The Conference Board produces a monthly report called Business Cycle Indicators and corresponding electronic datafiles that highlight the U.S. composite indexes and offer a wealth of additional statistical information gathered together in a common format. More than 250 U.S. economic series are in the BCI dataset, covering the most important aspects and sectors of the U.S. economy. An international dataset that will include the underlying data used to compute the global indicators will be available by subscription on our Web site. Visit the BCI Web site at http://www.globalindicators.org or send e-mail to firstname.lastname@example.org for more information.
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