The Conference Board announced today that both the leading and coincident indexes remained unchanged in April.

• Declining oil prices kept the leading index from increasing in April, as they also did in March. The opposite occurred from December to February when rising oil prices kept the leading index from declining. The leading index has been flat since late last year because these fluctuations have offset the contributions from the other components.
• Despite this flatness, it appears that strength is beginning to build in the leading index as reflected by two consecutive increases in the six-month growth rate. The six-month diffusion index, which measures the proportion of the leading index components that are rising, has picked up to 83.3 percent from 0.0 percent late last year.
• The coincident index, a measure of current economic activity, was unchanged in April. While both indexes are still consistent with sluggish growth, there are signs that positive momentum is beginning to build.

LEADING INDICATORS. One of the six components that make up the leading index decreased in April. The negative contributor to the index is the U.S. refiners' acquisition cost of domestic and imported crude oil. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are net insufficient inventories, stock prices, the real exchange rate, and the federal funds rate. The industrial production-construction component* was unchanged.

The leading index now stands at 105.8 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index decreased 0.1 percent in March and was flat in February. During the six-month span through April, the index increased 0.6 percent, with five of the six components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 83.3 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four components that make up the coincident index increased in April. The positive contributors to the index - from the largest positive contributor to the smallest - are industrial production, the number of people employed (measured by IMSS beneficiaries), and retail sales*. The negative contributor to the index was the inverted unemployment rate.

The coincident index now stands at 113.2 (1990=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.3 percent in March and increased 0.1 percent in February. During the six-month span through April, the index was unchanged, with two of the four components increasing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 50.0 percent).

* See notes under data availability.

The next release is scheduled for July16, 2003 at 11:00 A.M. (ET)
In Mexico - July 16, 2003 at 10:00 A.M. (MEX)

DATA AVAILABILITY. The data series used to compute the two composite indexes reported in the tables in this release are those available "as of" 5 P.M. (MEX) June 12, 2003. Some series are estimated as noted below.

NOTES: Series in the leading index based on The Conference Board estimates are industrial production - construction component. The series in the coincident index based on The Conference Board estimates are retail sales.

Professional Contacts at The Conference Board:
Ataman Ozyildirim: 1-212-339-0399

Media Contacts:
Randy Poe: 1-212-339-0234
Frank Tortorici: 1-212-339-0231 Website: http://www.globalindicators.org

THE CYCLICAL INDICATOR APPROACH. The composite indexes are the key elements in an analytic system designed to signal peaks and troughs in the business cycle. The leading and coincident indexes are essentially composite averages of between four and nine individual leading or coincident indicators. (See page 3 for details.) They are constructed to summarize and reveal common turning point patterns in economic data in a clearer and more convincing manner than any individual component-primarily because they smooth out some of the volatility of individual components.

Historically, the cyclical turning points in the leading index have occurred before those in aggregate economic activity, while the cyclical turning points in the coincident index have occurred at about the same time as those in aggregate economic activity.

Further explanations of the cyclical indicator approach and the composite index methodology appear in The Conference Board's Business Cycle Indicators report and Web site:www.globalindicators.org.

Mexico Composite Indexes: Components and Standardization Factors

	Leading Index	Factor
1.	Industrial Production, Construction Component	.0262
2.	Stock Prices	.0168
3.	U.S. Refiners' Acquisition Cost of Domestic and Imported Crude Oil	.0272
4.	Net Insufficient Inventories	.1255
5.	Federal Funds Rate	.0289
6.	Real Exchange Rate	.7754
	Coincident Index
1.	Industrial Production	.1086
2.	Retail Sales	.0504
3.	Employment	.1663
4.	Unemployment Rate	.6747

Notes: The component factors are inversely related to the standard deviation of the month-to-month changes in each component. They are used to equalize the volatility of the contribution from each component and are "normalized" to sum to 1. (Under normal circumstances, updates to the leading and coincident indexes only incorporate revisions to data over the past six months.)

The factors above were calculated using 1985-1999 as the sample period for measuring volatility for the leading index, and 1986-1999 as the sample period for the coincident index. There are additional sample periods as the result of different starting dates for the component data. When one or more components is missing, the other factors are adjusted proportionately to ensure that the total continues to sum to 1. For additional information on the standardization factors and the index methodology visit our Web site: www.globalindicators.org.

To address the problem of lags in available data, those leading and coincident indicators that are not available at the time of publication are estimated using statistical imputation. An autoregressive model is used to estimate each component. The resulting indexes are constructed using real and estimated data, and will be revised as the data unavailable at the time of publication become available. Such revisions are part of the monthly data revisions, now a regular part of the U.S. Business Cycle Indicators program. The main advantage of this procedure is to utilize in the leading index the data, such as stock prices, that are available sooner than other data on "real" aspects of the economy, such as new orders and changes in inventory. Empirical research by The Conference Board suggests there are real gains in adopting this procedure to make all the indicator series as up-to-date as possible.

NOTICES

The 2003 schedule for the Mexico "Leading Economic Indicators" news release is:

May 2003 Data ... Wednesday, July 16, 2003

All releases are at 11:00 AM (ET) and 10:00 AM (MEX).

ABOUT THE CONFERENCE BOARD. Founded in 1916, The Conference Board is the premier business membership and research network. The Conference Board has become a global leader in helping executives build strong professional relationships, expand their business knowledge and find solutions to a wide range of business challenges. The Board's Economics Program, under the direction of Chief Economist Gail Fosler, is a recognized source of forecasts, economic analysis and objective indicators such as the Leading Economic Indicators and the Consumer Confidence Index.

This role is part of a long tradition of research and education that stretches back to the compilation of the first continuous measure of the cost of living in the United States in 1919. In 1995, The Conference Board assumed responsibility for computing the composite indexes from the U.S. Department of Commerce. The Conference Board now produces business cycle indexes for the U.S., Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan, Spain Mexico and the U.K. To subscribe to any of these indexes, please visit www.globalindicators.org, contact the Global Indicators Research Institute at 212-339-0312, or email indicators@conference-board.org.

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Business Cycle Indicators for Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Spain and the U.K. are available at $500 per country per year (1 user). Discounts are available to Associates of The Conference Board and accredited academic institutions.