|
Computation for all ten components of the leading index
|
|
1998 |
|
Component |
Jan. |
Feb. |
Mar. |
Apr. |
May |
June |
July |
| 1 |
Average Weekly Hours, Mfg. |
42.1 |
42.0 |
41.8 |
41.4 |
41.8 |
41.8 |
41.7 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
-.238 |
-.477 |
-.962 |
.962 |
.000 |
-.240 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .189 |
|
-.045 |
-.090 |
-.182 |
.182 |
.000 |
-.045 |
| 2 |
Average Weekly Initial Claims, Unemp. Insurance |
316.6 |
309.0 |
308.5 |
308.7 |
316.5 |
351.1 |
315.4 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
2.430 |
.162 |
-.065 |
-2.495 |
-10.365 |
10.713 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .026 |
|
.063 |
.004 |
-.002 |
-.065 |
-.270 |
.279 |
| 3 |
New Orders, Consumer Goods & Materials |
151,899 |
153,640 |
154,212 |
154,965 |
150,981 |
150,665 |
156,204 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
1.140 |
.372 |
.487 |
-2.604 |
-.210 |
3.610 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .049 |
|
.056 |
.018 |
.024 |
-.128 |
-.010 |
.177 |
| 4 |
Vendor Performance -- Slower Deliveries |
52.0 |
52.1 |
53.4 |
52.3 |
51.2 |
51.3 |
50.4 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
.192 |
2.464 |
-2.081 |
-2.126 |
.195 |
-1.770 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .027 |
|
.005 |
.067 |
-.056 |
-.057 |
.005 |
-.048 |
| 5 |
New Orders, Nondefense Capital Goods |
49,148 |
47,393 |
47,446 |
48,159 |
47,785 |
47,924 |
47,835 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
-3.636 |
.112 |
1.492 |
-.780 |
.290 |
-.186 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .012 |
|
-.044 |
.001 |
.018 |
-.009 |
.003 |
-.002 |
| 6 |
Building Permits, Private Housing |
1,553 |
1,635 |
1,569 |
1,517 |
1,543 |
1,517 |
1,578 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
5.144 |
-4.120 |
-3.370 |
1.699 |
-1.699 |
3.942 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .018 |
|
.093 |
-.074 |
-.061 |
.031 |
-.031 |
.071 |
| 7 |
Stock Prices, 500 Common Stocks (S&P) |
963.36 |
1023.74 |
1076.83 |
1112.20 |
1108.42 |
1108.39 |
1156.58 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
6.077 |
5.055 |
3.232 |
-.340 |
-.003 |
4.255 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .033 |
|
.201 |
.167 |
.107 |
-.011 |
.000 |
.140 |
| 8 |
Money Supply |
3625.8 |
3654.0 |
3680.3 |
3705.0 |
3706.5 |
3724.2 |
3731.1 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
.775 |
.717 |
.669 |
.040 |
.476 |
.185 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .306 |
|
.237 |
.219 |
.205 |
.012 |
.146 |
.057 |
| 9 |
Interest Rate Spread |
-0.02 |
0.06 |
0.16 |
0.19 |
0.16 |
-0.06 |
-0.08 |
|
Arithmetic change |
|
.080 |
.100 |
.030 |
-.030 |
-.220 |
-.020 |
|
|
Standardized by a factor of .323 |
|
.026 |
.032 |
.010 |
-.010 |
-.071 |
-.006 |
| 10 |
Index of Consumer Expectations (U of Mich) |
102.2 |
104.2 |
101.9 |
104.3 |
101.7 |
99.3 |
100.0 |
|
Symmetric percent change |
|
1.938 |
-2.232 |
2.328 |
-2.524 |
-2.388 |
.702 |
|
Standardized by a factor of .017 |
|
.033 |
-.038 |
.040 |
-.043 |
-.041 |
.012 |
|
